European Decline: Is a University Degree Still Worth It?

The euro crisis' impact on the job market will extend for at least the next decade, with only eight million new jobs expected to be created in the European Union between now and 2020. These are the central findings of a new report by the European Center for the Development of Vocational Training (Cedefop), an E.U. agency headquartered in Thessaloniki, Greece.

Cedefop director Christian Lettmayr says eight million new jobs over a 10-year period is "very few," and warns that development could slow down even further. The job stagnation, which will be concentrated in southern Europe where millions of young people are without jobs, challenges a long-accepted assumptions about the benefits of pursuing a higher education.

Cedefop estimates that on average, college grads and skilled workers in the European Union have an easier time finding work than their less qualified counterparts. However, in 2020, only 37% of available jobs will require higher qualifications. “And the problem is that in countries with very high unemployment like Greece, Italy, and Spain, that figure would not apply,” says Lettmayr. “In those countries, the differences are disappearing.”

The Cedefop head sees an imbalance in E.U. countries between supply and demand as regards those with high levels of skill or education. “The highly qualified are pushing people out of jobs that they are over-qualified for.”

There are very few winners in the situation – with the possible short-term exception of the employer who is getting more for less. Lettmayr fears that more and more people are reaching the conclusion that, over the space of a working life, there will be too little return to warrant the investment in education.

Lettmayr, however, warns against drawing hasty conclusions from this exceptional, crisis-induced situation and thus risk degrading entire regions to a second-class job market status. “Levels of education and qualifications have to be increased in the economically weak countries, and not – driven by austerity measures – made even worse,” he says.

The present over-qualified generation should find encouragement, says Lettmayr, by not focusing solely on their own country but instead viewing all of Europe as one large job market. “A significant number of people in Greece who are presently training to be doctors, or engineers, or computer scientists, will find jobs in northern Europe.” That goes for skilled workers too, albeit to a lesser extent, Lettmayr adds. The Austrian-born Cedefop director admits, nevertheless, that “Europeans willing to work in other countries are still relatively few and far between.”

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