Headline Oct28,2012/

''GOOD LUCK!''

Time to chance your luck! The odds are, there's nothing strange about coincidence. Probably.....!?


Probability is that amusing branch of mathematics in which two ne'er-do-wells -call them Pat and Mike -are forever, flipping coins, rolling dice, playing cards, or betting on roulette wheels. Probability has to do with chance, which begat statistics, which  has lead to the realisation that whole, huge swathes of complex phenomena -such as, say, economics - are most amenable to probabalistic determination.
In recent years, its also become apparent that principles of quantum mechanics  -dealing with the behaviour of sub-atomic particles can only be described in terms of probability.


The advent of probability was the discovery, in the seventeenth century, that it was possible to make predictions about which there were two possible outcomes  -in that case, Pat and Mike tossing three pennies. From those small beginnings grew the science of probability. A lots of life has to do with indeterminables, its uses are surprisingly wide.

Manufactured goods, for instance, are usually not individually tested. Instead testing is carried out on samples, to ensure a consistent level of quality.

Statistical analysis suggests that the samples will reflect the production run, rather in the way a small sample of the population will reflect the voting intentions of the entire British Public. That too, is based on probability theory, and if sometimes the polls suggest that Labour is going to romp home and instead the Tories get in, well, sampling is an inexact science and statistics, as we all know, come after lies and damned lies in the trilogy of deceits.


More interestingly, probability is used to explain what we generally call coincidence. There is, it transpires nothing at all curious about synchronicity, in general it is more common than people realise and is determined by quantifiable principles. One of the best known examples of probability has to do with the likelihood that two people in a  gathering share the same birthday. As a year has 366 days, including February 29, -then to be absolutely certain that two individuals share the same birthday you would need to assemble 367 people.
There is a Mathematical proof for this, and the concept is sometimes called the Dirichlet Drawer principle, but its also plain common sense.To make it easier to envisage, think of the birth month instead. Given that there are 12 months of the year, you would need to get together 13 people to make certain two were born in the same month. Obvious. Right?


Don't miss the following delightful posts.

Good Night & God Bless!

SAM Daily Times - the Voice of the Voiceless