Ponds 'predict Arctic sea-ice melt'

A UK team believes it can now make skilful predictions of how much sea ice will melt during Arctic summers.

The scientists say the amount of water ponding on top of the floes as they warm in the spring has been shown to be an excellent indicator.

Using their technique, the Reading University researchers reckon the minimum ice extent this September will be about 5.4 million square km.

It is about the same as at the end of the melt season last year.

The floes in the far north are the subject of intense study currently because of their rapid summer decline.

Their extent has diminished from about 7 million square km in the 1990s to less than 5 million square km in five of the past seven years, with a record minimum of 3.6 million square km being set in 2012.

But the year-to-year variation is large and the computer models in general have failed to capture the behaviour.