EMISSIONS AND SEA-LEVELS : 2100

 

PARIS : Sustained greenhouse gas emissions could see global sea levels rise nearly 40 centimeters this century as ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland continue to melt, a major international study concluded Thursday.

The gigantic ice caps contain enough frozen water to lift oceans 65 meters, and researchers are increasingly concerned that their melt rates are tracking the UN's worst case scenarios for sea level rise.

Experts from more than three dozen research institutions used temperature and ocean salinity data to conduct multiple computer models simulating the potential ice loss in Greenland and Antarctic glaciers.

They tackled two climate scenarios - one where mankind continues to pollute at current levels and another when carbon emissions are drastically reduced by 2100.

They found that under the high emissions scenario ice loss in Antarctica would see sea levels rise 30 cm by century end, with Greenland contributing an additional 9 cm.

Such an increase would have a devastating impact worldwide, increasing the destructive power of storm surges and exposing coastal regions home to hundreds of millions of people to repeated and severe flooding. 

Even in the lower emissions scenario, the Greenland sheet would raise oceans by around 3 cm by 2100 - beyond what is already destined to melt due to the additional 1C of warming humans have caused in the industrial age.

''It's not surprising that if we warm the planet more, more ice will be lost,'' said Anders Levermann, an expert on climate and ice sheets at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

''If we emit more carbon into the atmosphere we will have more ice loss in Green;and and Antarctic,'' he told AFP.