SCIENTISTS -'CLIMATE-WARNING'- SEVERIEST : STUDY

PARIS: Climate change makes monsoon stronger - more erratic. Scientists warn of severe consequences for food, farming and economy.

Climate change is making India's monsoon stronger and more chaotic, scientists said Wednesday, warning of potential severe consequences for food, farming and the economy affecting nearly a fifth of the world's population.

A new analysis comparing more than 30 climate models from around the world predicts more extremely wet rainy seasons, which sweep in from the sea from roughly June to September each year.

Researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research [PIK] found strong evidence that every degree Celsius of warming would likely increase monsoon rainfall by about five percent.

The study not only confirmed trends seen in previous research, but found ''global warming increasing monsoon rainfall in India even more than previously thought,'' said lead author Anja Katzenberger, also of Ludwig Maximillian University.

''It is dominating monsoon dynamics in the 21st century.'' This raises the possibility that key crops -including rice - could be swamped during crucial growing stages.

Moreover, the monsoon is likely to become more erratic as warming increases, according to the study, published in the journal Earth System Dynamics.

Since Indian society is over all affected by the monsoon in a very strong way, stronger variability produces problems for agriculture, but also for the organization of public life,'' said Anders Levermann from PIK and Columbia University.

''If your road are flooded, if your train tracks are flooded, that inhibits economic productivity.''

He said the year-to-year variability would also complicate strategies to cope with the increasing strength of the rainy season.

''More chaos in the Indian monsoon rainfall will make it harder to adapt,'' he told AFP.

The research tracked shifts in the monsoon from the mid-20 century, when human - driven alterations began to overtake the slower natural changes that occur over millennia.

Initially, air pollution from aerosols - which largely reflect sunlight and act to subdue warming - caused monsoon rainfall to decrease. [AFP]