Headline, April 20 2025/ ''' OH -DEAR 2027- OH '''

''' OH -DEAR 2027- OH '''

A VIVID VISION OF A.I.'S GROWING POWER : One report describes a world where technology is many times more intelligent and scary than humans.

THE YEAR IS 2027 : POWERFUL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE SYSTEMS are becoming smarter than humans and are wreaking havoc on the global order. Chinese spies have stolen America's A.I. secrets and the White House is rushing to retaliate.

Inside a leading A.I. lab engineers are spooked to discover that their models are starting to deceive them, raising every possibility that they'll go rogue.

These aren't scenes from a sci-fi screenplay. They're scenarios envisioned by a nonprofit in Berkeley, Calif., called the A.I. Futures Project, which has spent the past year trying to predict what the world will look like over the next few years as increasingly powerful A.I. systems are developed.

The Project is led by Donald Kokotajlo, a former Open A.I. researcher who left the company last year over his concerns that it was acting recklessly.

While at OpenAI, where he was on the governance team, Mr. Kokotajlo wrote detailed internal reports about the race for artificial general intelligence or A.G.I. - a fuzzy term for human-level machine intelligence - might unfold.

After leaving, he teamed up with Eli Lifland, an A.I. researcher who had a track record of accurately forecasting world events. They got to work trying to predict A.I. next wave.

The result is '' AI 2027, '' a report and website released last week that describes, in a detailed fictional scenario, what could happen if A.I. systems surpass human-level intelligence - which the authors expect to happen in the next two to three years.

'' We predict that A.I.s will continue to improve to the point where they're fully autonomous agents that are better than humans at everything by end of 2027 or so,'' Mr. Kokotajlo said in a recent interview.

There's no shortage of speculation about A.I. these days. San Francisco has been gripped by A.I. fervor, and the Bay Area's tech scene has become a collection of warring tribes and splinter sects, each one convinced that it knows how the future will unfold.

Some A.I. predictions have taken the form of a manifesto, such as '' Machines of Loving Grace, '' a 14,000-word essay written last year by Dario Amodei, the chief executive of Anthropic or '' Situational Awareness, '' a report by the former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner that was widely read in policy circles.

The people at the A.I. Futures Project designed theirs as a forecast scenario - essentially, a piece of rigorously researched science fiction that uses their best guesses about the future as plot points.

The group spent nearly a year honning hundreds of predictions about A.I. Then, they brought in a writer - Scott Alexander, who writes the blog Astral Codex Ten - to help turn their forecast into a narrative.

'' We took what we thought would happen and tried to make it engaging,'' Mr. Lifland said.

Critics of the approach might argue that fictional A.I. stories are better at spooking people than educating them. And some A.I. experts will no doubt object to the group's central claim that artificial intelligence will overtake human intelligence.

Ali Farhadi, the chief executive of the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence, an A.I. lab in Seattle, reviewed the '' AI 2027 '' report and said he wasn't impressed.

'' I'm all for projections and forecasts, but this forecast doesn't seem to be grounded in scientific evidence or the reality of how things are evolving in A.I.,'' he said.

There's no question that some of the group's views are extreme. Mr. Kokotajlo, for example, told me last year that he believed there was a 70 percent chance that A.I WOULD DESTROY or catastrophically harm humanity.

And Mr. Kokotajlo and Mr. Lifland both have ties to Effective Altruism, another philosophical movement popular among tech workers that has been making dire warnings about A.I. for years.

The Honour and Serving of the Latest Global Operational Research on A.I. Mankind, Future and Risks, continues. The World Students Society thanks Kevin Roose.

With most respectful dedication to A.I. Scientists, Tech Giants, the Global Founder Framers of !WOW! - and then Students, Professors and Teachers.

See You all prepare for Great Global Elections on The World Students Society : wssciw.blogspot.com and Twitter X !E-WOW! - The Ecosystem 2011 :

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